January 2024 Newsletter-Year end and our market moving forward, a statistical extravaganza!

The beginning of a new year is always exciting.  We both want to wish you a healthy, happy and prosperous 2024! This newsletter is always exciting for us as it is a little more detailed and reflective as we look at where the Canmore real estate market has gone over the past twelve months and how that compares to previous years while also stepping back and looking towards the future of 2024.

The year of 2023 started with the second lowest inventory at the beginning of January. This continued to challenge the buyers in the marketplace with lack of options. Comparing to 2022, the inventory averaged out at the lowest of any year to date.  This is important to note as when buyers do not have options in a recreationally driven market they tend to wait.  The average listing inventory over the year was 111 which was 5% below 2022 and a startling 41% below the 10 year average.

Last year we predicted that the sales for 2023 would land between the 5 year pre-covid 2014-2019 average of 518 properties sold and the 2009-2019 sales volume of 455. Total sales for 2023 fell at 516 at the high end of that prediction but that also included a significant number of new construction hotel condo short term rental units. Looking at 2024 we would expect to see sales numbers between 400 and 450 unless the listing inventory increases which could pull the Canmore market sales to be at close to or above 500 sales.

For pricing year over year, we look at both the average and median prices broken up by market segment into Single Family Homes, Townhome Condos, Apartment Condos and Hotel Condos. I will break the average sale prices of each segment down below.

For Single Family Homes the average increase in the sale prices year over year for the past 10 years was 8.9% with one year having a 7.57% loss and all other years having gains between 0.24% and 38.8%.

For Townhome Condos the average increase in the sale prices year over year for the past 10 years was 7.1% with all years being an increase ranging .9% increase to 29.8% increase year over year.

For Apartment Condos, like Townhome Condos the year over year average sale prices increased each of the last 10 years.  The average was 7.1% with a range from 1.6% to 12.7% year over year.

Lastly, for Hotel Condos we had a year over year increase in average price that ranged from 8.2% to 37.9% with the average being 17.0%.  One note on this segment of the market the two previous years to this data set we saw dramatic decreases in average prices.

We get asked all the time about interest rates and how they affect our market.  This past year we saw many buyers miss out on the market as they expected a dip in prices that never came.  We find interest rate changes like we have seen over the past year does not have a dramatic affect on the recreational purchaser however we do see the affect in the entry level of our market limiting the ability for some buyers to get in.  Now saying that we currently only have 5 properties for sale in Canmore under $650,000 with two of them being conditionally sold.

We do see a lot of media attention talking about the markets slowing down and prices adjusting however Alberta and the Calgary area are widely still expected to stay strong moving into and through 2024.  The 2024 Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast has Calgary seeing a 8% increase in prices through 2024. In Canmore we are expecting to see price increases to be smaller and more balanced with a hopeful increase in listing inventory for buyers to choose from.

As always, if you are wondering about the value of your home, please let us know we are happy to update you on the current market!

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